Friday, September 18, 2020

Eagleton Copper League: September 19 - September 26

Team DoF vs. Believers in the process & Chuck

DoF: Flank, Nicki, Josh, Zach

Believers: Charlie, Luke, Ken, Fox, Jarrett

Events: 

1k, 2k, 3k

4x400m

Event assignments will be randomly assigned. There must be at least one runner from each team in each event. Points will be assigned based on the IAAF points calculator: https://caltaf.com/pointscalc/calc.html

Event Assignments (August 22)

1,000m: Nicki (DoF), Charlie (Process), Jarrett (Process), Zach (DoF)

2,000m: Flank (DoF), Ken (Process), Luke (Process)

3,000m: Josh (DoF), Fox (Process)

Results (Updated as received beginning September 19)

DoF: 514.25 pts

Process: 437.4 pts

Zach (DoF) 3:18.40 (9/19) 185 pts

Flank (DoF) 5:50.98 (9/19) 683 pts

Luke (Process) 6:29.1 (9/20) 420 pts

Ken (Process) 6:21.46 (9/26) 468 pts

Josh (DoF) 10:14.91 (9/26) 412 pts

Charlie (Process) 2:52.35 (9/26) 491 pts

Jarrett (Process) 3:01.53 (9/26) 367 pts

Nicki (DoF) 3:07.37 (9/26) 777 pts

Fox (Process) 10:07.37 (9/26) 441 pts

4x400m

Believers: Charlie (59.51), Jarrett (57.9), Ken (61.93), Fox (68.45) - 4:07.79

DoF: Josh (58.46), Flank (58.1), Nicki (67.4/54.61c), Zach (73.94) - 4:17.9/4:05.11

Wednesday, September 9, 2020

Eagleton Copper League: Fox's Preview

 For the first time, it’s that time of year again. With the Copper League debut just around the corner, Jarrett, with his usual lack of charisma or charm, previewed what is certain to be the most participated-in group event of 2020 for the people who are bored enough to be reading this sentence. Always the spineless waffler, Jarrett made very few concrete predictions, and his summaries were as fun to read as it is to prepare the night before a colonoscopy (everyone complains about the actual procedure, but having had one, the night before was absolute misery while I was unconscious for the actual camera up my end portion of the endeavour). For the first time of many, sorry Nicki. See, isn’t this already more entertaining that Jarrett’s drab musings? Before we get into event by event breakdowns, let’s set the stage: 


Believers in the Process & Chuck: For those readers who have not been educated to the background of this team name, I’ll spare you the long version; the short version is us five were already in a group chat with this name and Jarrett unilaterally named our team without input. I would’ve liked to consider team names such as “What’s the call, Kenny?,” “Hooray Kenny!,” “Allstar Kenny W and the Wedges,” or “Team guttural sounds that Luke and I make.” While BitP&C lack a clear low-stick, we do carry impressive balance and can expect reasonable contributions from all team members. Whether he has run 4.5 miles or 45 miles in the past week, the freshly married Charlie Kline is going to perform. (Quick aside, but those of us who are unmarried need to seriously consider having casual weddings. Chuck looked absolutely stunning in his suit, and he will certainly compare favorably to any of us given his history of never looking unfit. Then all of a sudden our prospective brides-to-be start having second thoughts having seen Charlie in a suit compared to how we look. Before you know it, we all die alone) From the 400 through the 5k, we can count on Charlie’s natural talent and Vermont-grit to come through with a high scoring performance, and coming off a sub 17 5k, he’s the safe bet to lead the way. Luke Munyan is another high end talent, and while he certainly is not as husky as the Luke of yesteryear, a bothersome achilles has prevented Luke from pushing too hard over the past few months. If he can hold on and manage to compete at a high level, he’ll be a certain X-factor in the Copper League. If injuries catch up with him during harder efforts, BitP&C could be sunk. Kenny Wohl returned to running after his surgery faster than Brendo decided against continuing to jump at the starting line before the Armory 5k (that joke is for Elkan). Some impressive workout, an impressive 10:08 3k Time Trial in trainers, and Kenny is set out to have an impressive fall. I forgot how to use a thesaurus. While Jarrett has just recently begun a fresh training block, he does bring a resume that includes a sub 2:00 800 PR, the fastest marathon PR in the group, and being incredibly invested in these proceedings. Yes, I realize the irony of that statement given that I am writing this piece at this moment (Mike Birbiglia voice “I get that we’re all here now.”), but I joked about this very league with Jarrett months ago and he had already long been planning it, and now we’re just days away from actually doing it. That’s all I have to say about Jarrett. And that leaves me, Alex Fox. I made a joke at Luke’s expense earlier, so it’s only fair that I do the same for myself here: about 16 months ago, you were all asking yourselves “Who ate Fox?” That’s another standup comedy reference, this time Aziz Ansari. Anyway, my training journey is well documented and now I’m in a position to have, as Josh Elkan once opined, an impactful season. Unless of course Jarrett keeps making me run 400s for the relays, in which case, I quit. 


DoF: I complained about how our team was named, but Christ, imagine being Flank or Nicki. They’re far and away the most important members of this team, and yet they have to run under the banner of giant ass and big giant ass (I’ll let you readers figure out which is which. Sorry Nicki). My complaints don’t hold a candle to their team name situation. Anyway, Flank is Flank, the only question is how Flank is Flank, and whether he’ll run when it’s 100 degrees in the middle of the day or just wait until the next morning. Here is my summary for Nicki:


She’s going to run fast regardless of the event, and apparently she makes a killer banana bread too? (For the record Jarrett, if Nicki gets her culinary skills in her strengths section on the player profiles, shouldn’t my lasagna go on there too? Or do I need to come down to Royersford, force feed you homemade lasagna, steal your laptop, edit my player profile, help clean up after dinner, and then accidentally leave my boat shoes at your house to get it done?) I’m already rambling a ton and I have yet to get to an actual event. Thank you if you’re still reading this. Zach and Josh are both woefully out of shape (and I have a great joke about Josh coming later, so keep reading!), but both have seemed to take the league’s formation in stride and are working diligently to not disappoint Nicki too much. Will they succeed? I hope not, passive-aggressive Nicki is truly a treasure. Almost like slightly buzzed, flat-out aggressive Hannah when she’s giving Luke the business about getting married. Onto the events!


1,000m: Jarrett, Charlie, and Nicki all running the same event? Wow, what are the chances of that? There’s no wayyyyyyyyyy Jarrett would’ve rigged his “random” assigner, which he created without telling us how, and utilized behind closed doors, to have this happen. This is low hanging fruit and we all know Jarrett isn’t cunning enough to have actually rigged this, but seriously, what are the chances? Jarrett, do the math, it is Wednesday after all (Stephen loves that joke). While Charlie’s forte isn’t necessary speed (it’s wearing a suit like a goddamn model, as I covered earlier), he isn’t slow. While the 2:52 goal seems fast (remember when Stephen ran 2:52.08 over the same distance at Kutztown? I don’t, I transferred by then), he’s coming off a 4:34 from late July, and hill sprints certainly don’t make you slower, and according to IAAF scoring, a 4:34 1500 is equivalent (500 points on the dot, way to go Chuck) to a 2:51.76. Actual analysis, who can believe it? Jarrett’s 4:49 1500 from the same Time Trial is far less impressive, and he certainly has gotten slower since then. While the 3 minute barrier should be on the table (Jarrett’s 4:49, which would net 374 points, is equivalent to a 3:00.98), the lack of speed work he’s done in the past weeks suggests he’ll be off that pace. As for Nicki, I’m fairly certain she’ll do whatever she sets her mind to. Jokes aside, she’s coming off some nice workouts, and while she too is early in her training block, the 1k should be short enough where her limited miles don’t prevent a high scoring output. Oh yeah, and Zach is running this. I was actually surprised with his 400 workout today, not even being sarcastic. He will have the disadvantage of going it alone, but once again, the shorter distance should help him from running a time that is so shameful he can never show his face at group gatherings again. 

Predictions: 

Charlie- 2:50.88-513 points

Jarrett- 3:06.21-310 points 

Nicki- 3:15.71-688 points 

Zach- 3:27.51- 113 points 


2,000m: “....he’s even with the lights on the Monaco track as he comes off the turn with just 200 meters to run. He’s looking strong. We could be in store for something special tonight folks. With 150 to go, he’s surging! Onto the final straight, he’s got a determined look on his face as he strides towards the finish. He’s well clear of the lights now! Watch the clock!! 36,37,38,39...and he’s across what’s the final time?! 4:39.92!! He’s done it! We have a new world record in the 2000m run. Kenneth Wohl is the first man in history to break the 4:40 barrier, shattering Hicham El Guerrouj’s previous mark of 4:44.79! He embraces his training partner and lover, Alex Fox, who paced him for the first 13 meters before pooping pants (Sorry Nicki) as a result of trying to run that fast. And now the American must fly back to New York to finish his 5K at the Armory.”

Predictions: 

Flank-6:09.40- 548 points

Luke-6:28.79-422 points 

Ken-6:29.21-420 points


3,000m: In the most lopsided event of the meet, I go against Josh Elkan. While I run 70+ mile weeks, Josh picks up a marijuana habit and moves in with his lovely girlfriend who cooks for him. I like my chances. Josh was quite disappointed to be placed in the 3k, but to paraphrase my future mother-in-law, “But Barbara, which event is he qualified to do?” (that was the joke I mentioned earlier, you can stop reading now) I ran 9:57 recently in a race I’d say went okay. If I can find any warm body to help pace me, I think I could run at least marginally faster. I also made a few other mistakes like checking my watch three times on the final straight, having a 10 minute conversation with a stranger after warming up and finishing my strides so I was cold on the starting line, and going out in 35 seconds for the 200 meters. All should be correctable. Josh refuses to disclose the pace of his most recent workout, which makes me think it’s slower than the pace Luke Munyan would do a normal Wednesday afternoon run in the Spring of 2014. The only question about this race is if I coordinate with Sam and show up at the track where Josh is running the morning of and lap him before he finishes. 

Predictions:

Fox- 9:52.75-498 points 

Josh-11:11.34-231 points 


4x400m Relay: For those of you doing the math at home (Jarrett), the score going into this relay is 2,163 to 1,580 in favor of BitP&C if my predictions are correct. Wow, really fair teams you assembled there commissioner. BitP&C need a victory in this first meet, as Flank and Nicki will only get faster and score higher, Zach and Josh work themselves into presentable shape, while us mediocre athletes plateau scoring wise. I have no idea how this relay will be scored (does IAAF have mixed scoring for relays?) but here’s what I think everyone will run. 

Predictions:

DoF: Nicki-67.11,Flank-58.94, Zach-76.67,Josh-65.23: 4:27.95

BitP&C: Charlie-63.61, Jarrett-65.28, Luke-64.39, Ken, 64.04, Fox-65.27 haha Jarrett: 64.52 average, 4:18.07


Man, we all used to be so much faster. 


Monday, September 7, 2020

Eagleton Copper League: 1,000m

Start List

Nicki, DoF

Charlie, Believers

Jarrett, Believers

Zach, DoF

Oddsmakers

Charlie vs. The Field (+12 seconds)

Nicki vs. The Field (+210 points)

Each of the following are even odds:

Zach vs. 2014 Muhl Indoor Scott Reutter (3:27.94)

Charlie vs. 2014 Muhl Indoor Zach (2:52.26)

Nicki vs. 2014 Muhl Centennial Conference Scott Reutter (3:17.74) 

Jarrett vs. Haverford's Jeff Ainsley's PR (3:04.55)

Narrative

Look, there's a lot to talk about in this event. For starters, it has four competitors which makes it the most crowded event in the Eagleton Copper League despite it being the shortest distance. Plus, it is the shortest event meaning that every second will loom large in the final points tally. I'm not sure any of these athletes truly prepared their bodies for the rigors of a short, speed based event like this and, ultimately, it is going to be hard for any of them to exceed their preseason point projections at 5k. The competition could swing on the 1,000 meters.

There is more than one major barrier in play here. Will Zach exceed 100 points? He needs to get to 3:29.48 to do it. Will Charlie break Zach's PR? It's something he is using as motivation as he visuals Eagleton. Will Nicki best her indoor 1k PR? The time of 3:12.34 looms as a very lofty mark, but if she can even get within sniffing distance, it means 700+ points. Will Jarrett break the 3 minute barrier? No.

It's a cat and mouse game as Zach chases Nicki, Nicki chases Jarrett, Jarrett chases Charlie and Charlie wonders if he will get the chance to race someone who can actually push him in a race. I mean that odds said he would get one of Fox, Ken, Luke or Flank, right?

Ultimately, when trying to gauge how well everyone did on race day, it's important to remember not to focus too much on times (regardless of slow some of us look in a 1k). The key result in this event will be whether or not Zach and Nicki average out to more points than Charlie and Jarrett. If that doesn't happen, it may be the end of Team DoF's hopes for stealing Week One. 

Eagleton Copper League: 2,000m

Start List

Ken, Believers

Flank, DoF

Luke, Believers

Oddsmakers

Flank (-18) vs Field

Luke (-3) vs. Ken

Narrative

In the rarely run 2,000m, there are really two races happening within the one event. The first, is Team DoF's top male performer in Flank against the clock. The young ward was projected to be clear level above the rest of his male rivals on Team Believers and, based on the most recent performances from Team DoF's DoF, he is going to need to do just that if his squad is going to steal the points crown. 

There are a couple key factors when projecting Flank's time. The first is his Georgian location (the state not the country). The heat there can be oppressive and, during Flank's last time trial, he made the bold decision to run when the sun was high in the sky. He also decided to run on what sounded like a blacktop track with spikes. Hopefully he can find an upgraded surface for this event. Lastly, Flank has a split focus to his training. He's been logging some pretty long stuff (he did 12 miles the other day which his collegiate coaching staff was too afraid to let him try) in preparation for races outside the Copper League and that could cost him those extra seconds of speed he needs to distance himself from the pack.

But the battle that everyone seems to be talking about is Luke vs. Ken. Although the pair are teammates, there is expected to be no love lost between these harriers. The rivalry began all the way back in 2011 when Luke's status as one of the top recruits made Ken quite angry. Although eventually the hype proved to be accurate, there was that one year that Ken made it inaccurate. Then things heated up even further when Luke began belittling Ken for his lack of PRing which motivated Ken to a big race at the Regional meet. Thankfully, no one was checking up on Luke's XC progression that season. 

Now we are ready for the next exciting chapter in this story that even Mark Miller is like, maybe we should go back to talking about the good runners. You can make a strong argument that Ken and Luke are the closest they have ever been from a fitness perspective. Ken put together some strong short distance work, leading to a 10:08 3k. Meanwhile, Luke, who would probably want me to note here that he does not have access to a track, has been quietly strolling along documenting very ordinary runs. Does he have the speed needed for a 2k?

Up until recently, I've been leaning toward Ken as the favorite, but it recent weeks it seems that he may have lost some of his spark. Is it possible that once Ken dropped his 10:08 and proved to everyone he was decent at running again, his competitive fire smoldered a bit? That doesn't sound at all like something that would happen to him. Will this post drive Ken back into the head space he needs to come out on top for Team Believers? If this doesn't, I'm not sure what will.

Either way, the Ken vs. Luke rivalry should help benefit Team Believers in the final standings. But how much will it narrow that all important spread between themselves and the All-American Flank?

Eagleton Copper League: 3,000m

Start List

Fox, Believers

Josh, DoF

Oddsmakers

Fox vs. Josh (+65)

Fox vs. Frosh Josh @ Kutztown (9:54.07) (+0)

Josh Over/Under 11:00 (Over -375 / Under +250)

Narrative

Expectations for Josh coming into the Eagleton Copper League weren't necessarily high and things didn't take a turn for the better when he drew the 3,000 meters. That said, when the team's were derived he was slated at barely north of 200 points. So if he can manage 6 minute mile pace, he'll get the job done. The question is, can he manage 6 minute pace? If you ask him, he will say there is no possible way. But if you ask him what soup is you may get an equally nonsensical answer.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the coin is Fox. You can make a pretty good argument that Fox will score the most points out of anyone on the Believers team this weekend. If he runs 9:55 (only slightly quicker than his 9:57 this past week) than Charlie would need a 2:52 in the 1k to keep pace. If you've read our 1k preview then you know that maybe.

Fox has been training like a madman to get to this event and, if he arrives healthy, he will be ready to attack it with a vengeance. Meanwhile, Josh cut a 4 mile run into a 3.2 mile run. His latest workout was purposely mysterious, a 2 mile tempo with no details other than a shot at the rivals from Team Process. He's been blatantly antagonistic, something Fox will have to admire even from the opposing sideline.

Trying to hype this as the first chapter in a Josh vs. Fox rivalry doesn't seem like a worthwhile use of time (although you wouldn't know that based on Fox's largely glossed over smack talk). There's no doubt about who will cross the line first. As always in the Copper League it is a question of how will these two do against the points calculator. And that just seems like too much math to address here. Even for me.

Zurich Copper League: November 20th to November 30th

Team DoF vs. Believers in the Process & Chuck DoF: Flank, Nicki, Josh, Zach Believers: Charlie, Fox, Ken, Jarrett Events: 5,000m Results...